StopPATH WV
  • News
  • StopPATH WV Blog
  • FAQ
  • Events
  • Fundraisers
  • Make a Donation
  • Landowner Resources
  • About PATH
  • Get Involved
  • Commercials
  • Links
  • About Us
  • Contact

Transource Mansplains Why Pennsylvania Must Approve Its Project

1/14/2021

0 Comments

 
Of course Transource filed exceptions to the Administrative Law Judge's recommended denial of its unnecessary transmission project.  That shouldn't come as any surprise.  But what is surprising is all the mansplaining required to inform the PA PUC that its job is merely to site the transmission project.  Transource says that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has authority to approve transmission projects that affect interstate transmission rates.  Transource explains that the only role state utility commissions have is to determine where the project is going because a state may not deny a transmission project permit.
The RD [Recommended Decision] confuses federal and state roles by attempting to overturn PJM’s transmission planning role as approved by FERC. It is undisputed that states retain jurisdiction over transmission siting and construction issues. However, FERC has exclusive jurisdiction over interstate transmission planning and has approved PJM’s role as outlined in its tariff. FERC held in Order 1000 that the regional planning requirements, including transmission planning to address market efficiency considerations, were being adopted pursuant to FERC’s rate jurisdiction under Section 206 of the Federal Power Act. The Federal Power Act preempts state jurisdiction over the wholesale rates of electricity in interstate commerce.
On the one hand, Transource says that the PUC is preempted from having any role in a regionally planned transmission project, except to decide siting and construction issues, but on the other hand, it begs the PUC to approve its transmission project.

Does Transource really expect the PA PUC to roll over and make itself irrelevant?  If states were obligated to accept the RTO's determination of "need", it upends the entire world of state authority to permit transmission projects.  Most states have statutory requirements to determine (for themselves!) whether a transmission project is needed.  Sure, they can consider what the RTO says about need, but they have to make their own determination based upon state law.  Transource purports that the state's "need" criteria are satisfied by simply accepting what PJM says.  However, PJM's planning and "need" determinations are not subject to Pennsylvania law.

FERC has jurisdiction over interstate transmission RATES.  That means the rates transmission projects approved by states may charge to customers.  FERC also has jurisdiction over the actions of the RTO, and can require that they plan transmission.  And that's where FERC's jurisdiction stops.  FERC simply cannot permit transmission projects.  That's a job for the individual states.  Only a state may issue a permit for a transmission project.

If the PA PUC accepts Transource's assertion that it may not reject a transmission project approved by PJM, it sets a dangerous precedent whereby states would be rubber-stamping yes men who abrogate their authority over transmission to the federal government.  Why would any state ever do this?  No one ever willingly relinquishes their power.

Transource also gets all wadded up over the Judge's independent evaluation of the evidence presented and determination of the facts.  It's up to the judge to determine the facts from the evidence presented.  Only the judge can determine which pieces of evidence have greater weight.  However, Transource insists that its evidence is the ONLY evidence worth evaluating and therefore the judge must accept Transource's evidence as superior to all other evidence and simply agree with Transource's purported facts.  Judges are fact finders.  It's what they do.  They determine the facts based on the evidence, and then apply the law to the facts in order to make a judgement.  That's exactly what ALJ Barnes did in the Transource case.  She simply did not believe everything Transource said, when compared to conflicting evidence from other parties.

For instance, Transource's expert testified that transmission lines do not interfere with GPS systems used to guide farmers.  Transource's expert is not a farmer.  He's never driven a GPS-guided piece of farm equipment underneath a transmission line.  However, actual farmers who have driven GPS-guided farm equipment underneath transmission lines testified that there is interference.  The judge weighed these two pieces of conflicting evidence and decided to take the word of the person who actually has experience farming underneath existing transmission lines.  Transource nearly had a conniption over that.  How could the judge accept the testimony of a lay person over its expert?  Don't believe your lying eyes!

It hasn't been lost on me that the judge is a woman.  It obviously isn't lost on Transource, either.  The tone of Transource's exceptions brief crosses the line into the realm of mansplaining.  What's mansplaining?
to explain something to a woman in a condescending way that assumes she has no knowledge about the topic
Transource says over and over again that the judge simply doesn't understand things.  Tut, tut, tut, there, there, little lady, you simply don't understand the manly world of electric transmission, let me explain it to you so you understand.

Excuse me... but this is an experienced Administrative Law Judge.  She didn't get where she is today by being a silly wallflower.  She understands transmission perfectly well, she just didn't agree with Transource.  She wasn't intimidated by PJM's complicated explanations about why this transmission project is needed.  Maybe the RTO's overly-complicated evidence and testimony is designed to confuse judges with an ego?  The judge is cast into the role of the silly townsfolk in the transmission version of The Emperor's New Clothes.  Does the judge side with the transmission company because she doesn't understand and wants to avoid looking dumb?  Or does she point her finger and declare the transmission company naked (and full of crap)?
Is it possible that an experienced ALJ got everything wrong?  And is it likely that the PUC Commissioners will toss out her decision in its entirety and approve the project anyhow?  It remains to be seen, but I think that stuff only happens in fairy tales.

Up next... other parties may file replies to Transource's exceptions.  Then the Commissioners review everything and make their decision.
0 Comments

Pennsylvania Judge Recommends Transource Independence Energy Connection be Denied

12/29/2020

4 Comments

 
Picture
Merry Christmas, Pennsylvania!  Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission Administrative Law Judge Elizabeth Barnes issued her decision recommending denial of Transource's IEC project on December 22, just in time for Christmas.  This is an amazing gift to the citizens of Pennsylvania, who have been battling this unneeded project since 2017.

While the judge recommended that the Commissioners deny Transource's application, the Commission is free to reject her recommendations and approve it anyhow.  While this is unlikely, it could happen.  The regulatory system in Pennsylvania appoints administrative law judges to hear the case, evaluate evidence, and make determinations based on law.  In some states, such as Maryland, the actual Commissioners hear cases and issue decisions directly.  But in Pennsylvania, the PUC relies on the expertise of administrative law judges to handle the hearings and simply make recommendations to the Commissioners.  Cross your fingers and knock on wood that the Commissioners rely on the judge's expertise to deny the application and aren't sidetracked by any of Transource's nonsense and lobbying to reject the judge's hard work.  Because Transource will do that, you know.  It will now focus its attention on the Commissioners and try to convince them to reject the judge's recommendation.  It's what utilities do when faced with rejection... file more briefs and hire more lobbyists to pressure elected officials to put the squeeze on the Commissioners to reject the judge's recommendation.  Of course, you can participate in this phase of the case as well by filing new comments asking the Commissioners to accept the judge's recommendations, and contacting your elected representatives expressing your support for the judge's recommendations and asking that they also support the judge.

And while you're busy writing comments, you might also send a note to the PA Office of the Consumer Advocate (OCA) thanking them for all their hard work on this case.  After reading the judge's decision, I believe that OCA's participation was crucial to proving that the Transource IEC is not needed.  Lack of "need" for the project was the threshold issue for the judge's denial, although there was reason to deny on other factors under consideration.  The judge stated, "the IEC Project is no longer needed for the purpose for which it was designed in 2016."

The judge found that the "congestion" that was PJM's basis for the project has evaporated.  She recognized that congestion is fleeting and that new transmission to alleviate it is not always a good thing.  She also recognized that PJM's forecasts are not necessarily accurate.
In the simulation that PJM performed in 2015, the PROMOD model simulated a congestion cost of $110 million occurring on the AP South Reactive Interface in 2019. Tr. at 2936. According to the simulation, the AP South Reactive Interface had the highest congestion cost simulated in 2019 when compared to the Safe Harbor-Graceton, Conastone-Peach Bottom, and AEP-DOM constraints. Id. In reality, Congestion on the AP South Reactive Interface cost approximately $14.5 million in 2019, substantially lower than predicted by PJM’s forward-looking models. Tr. at 2921. This indicates the erroneous assumptions that were used to calculate the benefit-cost ratio that PJM relied upon when selecting the IEC Project for approval.
Hear that, PJM?  All your complicated reasoning for the project didn't fool the judge.  She also recognized that "Transource seems to be creating new reasons for the project."  All those arguments about the project being for "reliability" didn't fool the judge either.  Regarding the argument that Transource would relieve transmission congestion that was creating "discriminatory prices," the judge didn't buy that either.
Transource is a foreign company asserting that economic congestion creates artificially low prices in the unconstrained region resulting in rates that are discriminatory and unfair for customers in the constrained region. I reject this premise as evidence to find “need” pursuant to the meaning of the term in 52 Pa. Code Section 57.76(a)(1). Economic congestion is not a form of rate discrimination that implicates the Commission’s authority, but may be an appropriate market-based response to the wholesale power market. Any difference in rates above versus below the point of congestion or constraint can represent reasonable differences in the cost to serve customers in the constrained region as opposed to those in the unconstrained region. I do not find rates in a constrained area necessarily per se discriminatory.

No one from Maryland or Washington D.C. testified at any public input hearing to complain about discriminatory rates in favor of the project. Some individuals from Maryland spoke against the project at public input hearings. For example, Patty Hankins of 229 St. Mary’s Road, Plyesville, Maryland testified against the project as there was insufficient cost updates from 2015 data to warrant the project. She feared projected costs kept escalating and she argued the existing Otter Creek to Conastone 230 kV line rebuilt by PPL could carry two 230 kV circuits but was currently carrying one as of June 1, 2018.  Ms. Hankins testified that the cost to add 230 kV lines to PPL’s existing transmission towers would cost less than the IEC project.

I heard no complaints from any individuals that rates were too high or prices discriminatory in Washington D.C. or in Maryland compared to Pennsylvania, or that they did not have reliable electric service in those areas. Only Transource’s witnesses testified that there was price discrimination. PJM did not identify or consider non-transmission alternatives to alleviate the projected congestion in the AP Interface.
None of these supposedly benefiting ratepayers from the city thought they needed the project.  It was only PJM and Transource that thought it was a good idea.  The judge also recognized that congestion is primarily a market signal to build new generation below the transmission constraint.  If PJM proposes transmission to solve every transmission constraint, its markets never get the chance to work.  Instead, she recognized that there are other solutions to any congestion problem.

The judge also mentioned that when the math is done correctly, the costs of the project outweigh any benefit.
PJM’s forward-looking model projects that if the IEC Project is constructed, the PJM region would only experience net benefits of $32.5 million over a period of 15 years and Pennsylvania, in particular, would experience a net increase of $400 million in wholesale power prices over that same period of time. This result would be produced by constructing a transmission project that is guaranteed to cost at minimum $476 million and will impact the natural, historic, scenic, and aesthetic lands of Franklin and York Counties, Pennsylvania, and the property rights/market values of those Counties’ landowners. Accordingly, while there may be some forecasted price differences in PJM’s forward-looking models, any reduction in “price discrimination” for regions below the constraints is outweighed by the anticipated harm caused to Pennsylvania by the IEC Project.
She also didn't buy all the stuff about other "benefits" for Pennsylvania, such as jobs, increased generation, increased taxes, and economic benefits.

The judge recommended not accepting the settlement for the eastern half of the project because it was not in the public interest.  While Transource alleviated much of the impact on the eastern leg of its project, the settlement did nothing to change the project's western half.  Alleviating impacts on only a portion of the project did not make the entire project in the public interest.  In other words... the impacts on the western part of the project matter, too.  The judge noted that Transource and PJM never proposed making changes to the western half of the project to alleviate impacts, although perhaps they could have.
Route C selected as the Proposed Route for the West Portion of the IEC Project does not have less of an overall impact to the environment than would be utilizing at least in part the existing parallel route owned by West Penn Power already in existence. A separate bid by West Penn Power dubbed project 18h, was rejected by PJM during the competitive bidding process. However, from an environmental impact view, using a line and its ROW already in existence would have less environmental impact on Falling Spring, cross country course, organic farmland, vegetation, woodlands and wildlife along the West Portion of the IEC Project. Thus, I cannot find “minimum adverse environmental impact” as required by Section 57.76(a)(4). There is no evidence Transource and West Penn Power ever negotiated or agreed to any arrangement whereby West Penn Power’s existing parallel transmission system could be upgraded or utilized for an alternative route. I am persuaded by the business representatives, Superintendent, Quincy Township Supervisors, and landowners to find the environmental impact in Franklin County is not minimalized by the Western route.
Could Transource and PJM fall on their sword once again and work with West Penn Power to utilize their existing right of way?  Yes, but that outcome is highly unlikely.  There would be absolutely no reason for Transource to do so if it loses the income from another leg of this project.  They need to be done with this.  Now.

The judge also found the impacts to western PA to be unacceptable when PJM could have selected another option to alleviate the congestion that would have utilized existing rights of way.

All in all, the judge did a remarkable job in this case and her recommendation should stand.  Her decision was long (124 pages!) and thorough, but is good reading for everyone involved in this case.  Let's hope a new year brings an end to the Transource IEC and PJM will finally abandon this project before it costs us any more money.  Oh, we'll all still pay for the costs to date (including the surveys, land agents, and other development costs Transource merrily incurred while this case was winding its way through the regulatory commissions in two states), plus 11% return on equity until paid in full.  But that's another case yet to come, and this time at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

Well done, Pennsylvania!  Congratulations to all the opponents who fought so long and so hard!
4 Comments

PA OCA Recommends Denial of Transource Project

8/22/2020

1 Comment

 
Ut-oh, Transource!  UTTT-OHHHH!  It's looking like the smoke and mirrors Transource and PJM have been using to prop up their unneeded Independence Energy Connection project didn't fool the Pennsylvania Office of the Consumer Advocate.  In fact, it looks like PJM and Transource didn't manage to fool anyone... anyone at all.

Finally got around to looking at the initial briefs in the PA-PUC proceeding, and I recommend the OCA's extensive brief for some great reading!  I have to admit that I didn't bother to even look at Transource's brief.  There was no need after I read the OCA's.  I'm convinced there's simply nothing Transource can say that would be even remotely convincing about a need for this project.  And it's Saturday... why torture myself even further?

The OCA says
The OCA submits, however, that this market efficiency project designed to address economic congestion on the bulk electric grid cannot meet the constitutional, statutory, and regulatory standards under Pennsylvania law. Under the evidence presented, actual congestion on the AP South Reactive Interface has diminished precipitously in the years since this proceeding began, subverting any reason to construct this Project. Moreover, PJM’s benefit-cost analysis, which the Company relies upon to allege that this Project will provide sufficient benefits in excess of the costs, contains significant deficiencies such that it cannot support the necessary findings under Pennsylvania law. Most importantly, PJM’s benefit-cost analysis ignores the detrimental impacts of increased wholesale power prices that accrue to certain transmission zones as a result of constructing the IEC Project, including many transmission zones in Pennsylvania seeing increased costs for Pennsylvania ratepayers. In addition, PJM’s process for approving the IEC Project failed to consider reasonable alternatives and did not address the serious environmental and property issues raised.
And
... the Commission should not approve the IEC Project based upon the Company’s claims of potential reliability violations occurring in 2023 in the absence of the IEC Project. The Company’s belatedly filed evidence is based upon limited testing and outdated data. Moreover, the facilities that may experience these potential violations are aging facilities that are due for an upgrade in the coming years. Indeed, since 2018, several of the facilities that the Company claims will overload are undergoing rebuilds that may increase capacity. The OCA submits that if the IEC Project is not approved, PJM has the means to determine if these potential future reliability violations will still occur and find more efficient, targeted proposals to correct these issues.
And
... Pennsylvania would also be burdened by new transmission infrastructure construction in Franklin and York Counties, including a new substation and a new transmission line in Franklin County, 13.6 miles of which will be constructed over presently unencumbered land, and lengthy re-builds of additional transmission infrastructure and a new substation in York county. Accordingly, these economic and environmental harms demonstrate that the IEC Project fails to meet the constitutional, statutory, and regulatory standards under Pennsylvania law.
And for these reasons
For the reasons set forth herein, the Commission should deny the Company’s Applications.
The company, with the help of IEC proponent PJM Interconnection, has completely failed to demonstrate need for the IEC.  PJM has dug itself a real pit trying to dart and weave in order to bolster its continually failing justification for the IEC.  PJM should have cut its losses and moved on long ago.  But for some reason, PJM prefers to make up new numbers, change its processes, and engage in a general course of "magic math" endeavors to dig deeper and deeper into the realm of unreality in order to support a project that may have been a good idea once upon a time but has since become obsolete.  This is nothing new... once PJM orders a project to be built it holds onto that project way beyond reason and will do immoral things to support the project's necessity.  This does not serve ratepayers.  This serves PJM's member transmission owners who stand to profit from building new transmission we just don't need.

According to PJM, the IEC would provide $844M of benefit over the first 15 years.  The OCA's witness calculated that the IEC would also produce an unaccounted for increase in the cost of power in Pennsylvania by an estimated $812M during that same period.  These two numbers must offset themselves, leaving a mere $32.5M of benefit for PJM consumers over the first 15 years of the project.  To realize that $32.5M in benefit, PJM consumers must spend $527M over the same time period.  This creates a benefit/cost ratio of 0.06.  This means that for every dollar ratepayers pay for this project, they will receive 6 cents of benefit.  As the OCA witness pointed out, this makes no sense.
...I reached the same conclusions whether we look only at Pennsylvania or whether we look at PJM as a whole. Either way this project makes no sense. You don't spend 350 or $400 million so you can save $12 million over a 15-year period. It makes no sense. Q. Only under your cost-benefit analysis; is that right?
A. Under any logical view of what's happening. If you build this project, you can save utilities in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia almost a billion dollars over 15 years; and, if you don't build that project, that same power is going to be used in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and New Jersey at a cost of about $970 million.
So, yes, there is some congestion. There is a technical problem to be solved, and the value of that congestion as laid out in the most recent estimate we have is less than a million dollars a year over the next 15 years. So this project makes no sense. I don't care how you run the numbers or how you talk about it. Those are the latest numbers we have, and you can exclude them if you want to but that's reality.

Pennsylvanians are so fortunate to have a great consumer advocate!  The OCA's work on this case is most likely crucial to the ultimate outcome.  Let them know you appreciate their efforts!

Of course, it's not over until it's over.  There's probably another round of reply briefs to come, followed by the decision of the administrative law judge assigned to the case.  After that, parties may file further arguments for their position before the Commissioners vote on the matter.  Will the PUC Commissioners toss out all the work of the judge and approve this project on an unsupported whim?  That's going to be a whole lot harder to do, thanks to the OCA!
1 Comment

A New Chapter:  Fearless Girls Forge Ahead

7/27/2020

0 Comments

 
Once upon a time, Keryn and Ali met at a PATH Opposition Strategy session in West Virginia.  It's been ten long years since then, and we're still challenging and supporting each other to reach our joint goal.

Ever met someone who just makes you better?  Someone so fearless that you just can't help being fearless right along with her?  It's been like Transmission Thelma and Louise, only without the cliff.  Until recently...

Guess where we're going?
Picture
No, not there.  Been there, done that.  Time for a change of scenery.
Don't tell us we can't do something.  Don't tell us we don't matter.  Don't tell us we're powerless.  When the door shuts in our faces, we open a window.

Fearless.
Picture
0 Comments

Maryland PSC Approves Transource.  But...

7/1/2020

0 Comments

 
Whoopie de doo... the Maryland PSC couldn't wait any longer to get rid of the Transource issue, so it tossed Western Maryland under the bus and suspended disbelief long enough to approve the settlement Transource reached with state agencies and intervening landowner groups.  The lone opponent of the settlement agreement, Maryland's Office of Peoples Counsel, got kicked under the bus, too.  Think about that one... the only party to the case representing the interests of all Maryland's  electric consumers got kicked under the bus in favor of the interests of state agencies and a small community of landowners.

Of course, the PSC was decidedly dismissive of the landowners as well.  The PSC found that it could reject certain portions of the settlement agreement, while still approving the agreement.  The agreement was written to be whole... removal of any portion of the agreement voids the agreement.  However the PSC says it is only rejecting those provisions, not disapproving them.  Sounds like a bunch of weasel words to me.

The portion of the settlement agreement that the PSC rejected, of course, was the agreement that Transource would reimburse citizen groups and individual citizen intervenors for a portion of their legal costs.  The PSC is not taking a position on this, therefore the PSC is not going to enforce that portion of the settlement agreement.  What if Transource weasels out of paying?  If they don't pay, the citizen groups can spend even more money taking Transource to court.  Transource, for its part, should think long and hard about trying to include these costs in rates.  The PSC approved the project without those provisions, therefore it would be pretty hard to argue that they are a necessary cost of constructing the project that should be paid for by ratepayers.
Picture
Maybe AEP can just deduct these costs from Hector's salary?  Don't worry, Hector, your financial pain will be minimal when Pennsylvania doesn't approve the Transource project.

So, let's turn to Pennsylvania.  Maryland obviously got tired of waiting for Pennsylvania to make a decision and decided to go first.  Could Maryland's approval of Transource and dismissal of concerns about the western segment influence what Pennsylvania will do?  Doubt it.  Many moons ago, on a different transmission project, West Virginia permitted it first, and everyone believed Pennsylvania would have to approve it, too, just to align with West Virginia.  But it didn't.  The PA PUC administrative law judges recommended a denial.  And the transmission company had to get on its knees and beg for a settlement that involved abandoning the vast majority of the project in Pennsylvania.  What was eventually approved was something like 2 miles of line. 

The people and governments of western Pennsylvania are still very much in opposition to the project.  The longer segment of the Pennsylvania project is on the western side.  In Maryland, all the opposition was on the eastern segment.  In Pennsylvania, opposition has been about equal between east and west.  However, the western opponents did not sign a settlement agreement because there was nothing in it for them.  Transource has refused to make similar improvements to the western segment.

In addition, the Transource project will create a whole bunch of new costs for Pennsylvania electric consumers.  In Maryland, the PSC dismissed new costs in one electric zone in favor of purported cost reductions in other zones.  The MD PSC tossed Delmarva customers under the bus in order to create "savings" for customers elsewhere.  It would be much harder for Pennsylvania to toss ALL its electric customers under the bus in order to create "savings" for electric customers in other states.  Sounds pretty dumb when it's all boiled down, doesn't it?

But, hey, guess what?  Transource cannot construct its project in Maryland until the Pennsylvania portion is approved. 

OPC also submits that the Project could be detrimental to Maryland customers if Transource does not also receive approval from the Pennsylvania commission (or the Project is otherwise abandoned by PJM) because, if so, Transource and BGE may be entitled to the recovery of prudently incurred abandonment costs. The issue of abandonment costs is an appreciable risk. Regarding the mitigation of such costs, in Case No. 9470—a separate but related CPCN proceeding—Potomac Edison, the applicant transmission owner, committed to limiting its construction costs, to the extent possible, pending the ultimate approval of the combined IEC Project in Maryland and in Pennsylvania.   The Commission finds that a similar limitation under the circumstances is warranted. At the February Settlement Hearing, Transource witness Weber testified that Transource has incurred approximately $35 million to date, non-inclusive of Transource’s additional firm price contracts. Witness Weber stated that Transource would wait for approvals from both Maryland and Pennsylvania before beginning construction. The Commission will hold Transource to this commitment.
Wait for approvals from Pennsylvania before beginning construction.  Got it?  Of course, the Maryland PSC showed its
Picture
tendencies in the corresponding ordering paragraph.
That as an additional condition of the Commission’s approvals in this matter, Transource and BGE are directed to minimize all construction activities and additional construction-related costs, as they relate to the Maryland portions of the IEC Project, pending the regulatory approvals of Alternative Project 9A by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission and final approval by the PJM Board.
What's the difference between "beginning construction" and "minimizing construction"?  Oh, probably another $35M or so.  No big deal... you're going to pay for it, not Transource or the Maryland PSC Commissioners.  What do they care about wasting your money?
So, what is up in Pennsylvania?  The PA PUC issued a new schedule for evidentiary hearings on July 9 and 10.  However, that is premised on the hearings being conducted via Skype. Franklin County and Stop Transource Franklin County have filed motions asking that the hearings be delayed until they could be held in person.  Not everyone has access to computers and Skype (remember there are a lot of German Baptist "plain people" in Franklin Co.) and the issue of taking people's property using eminent domain requires in-person proceedings that everyone can understand and participate in.  If this motion is granted, it could delay the PA PUC decision even more.  Right now, they'd be lucky to have a decision by the end of the year.  Who knows how much time would be added by waiting until it's safe to gather in person?

Whenever this hearing happens, it's going to get really interesting really quick.  Stop Transource has a new witness for these hearings.  Joe Bowring, PJM's Market Monitor, will be testifying on their behalf.  The Market Monitor has been a long-time critic of PJM's Market Efficiency process, and apparently not a fan of the Transource project, either.  STFC quotes this passage from the Market Monitor's most recent State of the Market report:
The Transource Project (Project 9A) is an example of a PJM approved market efficiency project that passed PJM’s 1.25 benefit/cost threshold test despite having benefits, if accurately calculated, that were less than forecasted costs. This project also illustrates the risks of ignoring potential cost increases given that the costs included in the benefit/cost calculation are nonbinding estimates. The Transource Project was proposed in PJM’s 2014/2015 RTEP long term window. PJM’s 2014/2015 RTEP long term window was the first market efficiency cycle under Order 1000. The 2014/2015 long term window was open from November 1, 2014, through February 28, 2015. This window accepted proposals to address historical congestion on 12 identified flowgates. The AP South Interface was one of the 12 identified flow gates listed in the 2014/15 RTEP Long Term Proposal Window Problem Statement.

A total of 41 market efficiency projects were proposed to address congestion on the AP South Transmission Interface. Transource Energy LLC, together with Dominion High Voltage, submitted a proposal referenced by PJM as Project 9A (or IEC or the Transource project) to address AP South related congestion.


Project 9A was considered a subregional project based on its voltage level, meaning that changes in forecasted system costs were not considered for purposes of estimating the benefit/cost ratios. Instead, only reductions in zonal load costs were considered as a benefit of the project. Any increases in zonal load costs were ignored in the analysis.

The initial study had a benefit to cost ratio of 2.48, with a capital cost of $340.6 million. The sum of the positive (energy cost reductions) effects was $1,188.07 million. The sum of negative effects (energy cost increases) was $851.67 million. The net actual benefit of the project in the study was therefore $336.40 million, not the $1,188.07 used in the study. Using the total benefits (positive and negative) to compare to the net present value of costs, the benefit to cost ratio was 0.70, not 2.48. The project should have been rejected on those grounds.

Subsequent studies of the 9A project have reduced its benefit/cost ratio as a result of increased costs, decreased congestion on the AP South Interface since 2014 and a reduction in peak load forecasts since 2015.
You really should read his report.  It also includes delicious nuggets like this:
Projecting speculative transmission related benefits for 15 years based on the existing generation fleet and existing patterns of congestion eliminates the potential for new generation to respond to market signals. The market efficiency process allows assets built under the cost of service regulatory paradigm to displace generation assets built under the competitive market paradigm. In addition, there are significant issues with PJM’s current benefit/cost analysis, which cause it to consistently overstate the potential benefits of market efficiency projects. The MMU recommends that the market efficiency process be eliminated.
The PA-PUC could probably make good money selling tickets to this show!

Remember, it's not over until it's over, and there's still lots more to come!
0 Comments

Another Transmission Nightmare Begins...

2/27/2020

0 Comments

 
I really hate running across stories like this.  If you're a regular reader here, you've probably been there yourself.  They all start the same way...

A community is blind-sided by a new transmission proposal.  The transmission company herds them into one of their "Open House" dog and pony shows, where the landowners glare at transmission employees with arms folded in news photos.  The news media is there to report the story and get quotes from the landowners (because, hey, dirty laundry sells).  The landowners then begin to gather, both in and outside the meeting.  Information is exchanged, and a transmission opposition group is born.

I got my best piece of advice ever at one of these Open House meetings.  The sympathetic transmission company guy innocently told me "Make a lot of noise."  Damn straight, Skippy!

So, what's this project?  The Central Virginia Reliability Project is the brainchild of American Electric Power's Appalachian Power Co.  The news dutifully parroted ApCo's project spiel:
The project is designed to provide a new electricity source for the region with the construction of 15 miles of transmission lines and improvements to four substations in Amherst, Appomattox, Campbell and Nelson counties.
The completed transmission line would strengthen the local power grid, increase reliability to the area and reduce the likelihood of power outages, according to APCo spokesperson George Porter. He said Albemarle, Appomattox, Amherst, Campbell and Nelson counties all would see increased service reliability.

Well, doesn't that sound impressive and, ya know, sort of "needed?"  Maybe if you're an innocent.

New electricity source?  Not hardly.  ApCo is simply re-routing existing transmission lines that have reached the end of their useful life.  Instead of simply rebuilding them, they had a better idea.  But it's not a new power supply. 
Here's a map and description of this project from PJM's website.
Picture
PJM?  What is PJM?  I notice PJM didn't make the news.  Is ApCo saving PJM as a shield to whip out if this community revolts and starts making noise?  C'mon, usually it's "PJM told us to do this.  Our hands are tied."

Except PJM didn't really tell them to do this, at least not in this way.  Here's how the project dreamed up by ApCo was presented to PJM:
There are also supplemental needs in the area that were evaluated together with the baseline violations. The supplemental needs in the area are driven by equipment condition for the Amherst – Clifford 69 kV and Clifford – Scottsville 46 kV circuits. The lines were built in 1960 and 1926 respectively, on wood pole structures and have many open conditions due to rot, woodpecker/insect damage, split poles, broken insulators, and damaged shield wire. The recommended solution addresses both the baseline and supplemental needs in the area and is the most cost effective. The estimated cost for this project is $85 million, and the required in-service date is December, 2022. Based on their FERC 715 TO Criteria, the local transmission owner, AEP, will be designated to complete this work.
Oh, supplemental needs.  In other words, there was more than one way to skin this cat, and AEP selected the project design it wanted.  The other options not selected are probably as boundless as AEP's energy.

Gotta wonder... did PJM do a "constructability analysis" on this project to see if it was feasible?  I don't see it.  Guess PJM figured the landowners in "central Virginia" would just go along like happy little campers.

And all that blather about reliability?  It's designed to make you think that your lights are going to go off if this project doesn't happen.  It's designed to make you remember all those times that your power went off during storms.  It's designed to make you think that you will experience less outages if this transmission line is built.  Except that's not reality.  Most power outages happen on the distribution system, not the transmission system.  It's the network of local power lines that bring power to your home, and not the big transmission lines that move it around between substations, where the vast majority of power outages happen.  The power will still go out in your house when that system fails.

The News & Advance reports:
Along the multiple possible routes, more than 300 landowners had the potential to be effected — largely by the 70- to 90-foot galvanized steel poles that would be constructed to carry the transmission lines.
That's a lot of people.  They could make a lot of noise.  But ApCo seems to be playing them against each other right now by encouraging them to push the project onto someone else like a nasty, rotten hot potato until one of the proposed line segments simply loses.  ApCo pretends it cares about landowners and communities and is only seeking their help in selecting the best route.  ApCo considers the project a fait accompli and that one of these route segments must lose.  However, it's not about where to put it... it's about whether to put it.
Martin’s neighbors, Bill and Cole Carney, harbor similar fears. One of the proposed routes would cut through their property. Owners of the 1851 plantation home that gave Tin Top Place its name, they have been on the property for about a year. Budding farmers with plans to expand and potentially start an organic farm, Bill Carney said it will render swathes of their land useless, force acres of woods to be cut down and prevent them from moving forward with plans for the farm.
“How are we supposed to sell products if we have an industrial power line coming through our supposed organic fields?” said Cole Carney. “We never would have bought had we known this was coming.”
The Carneys didn't know it was coming.  And the community didn't know it was coming.  But PJM and ApCo knew it was coming back in 2018.  They just didn't bother to tell anyone until they had fully developed the project.  If ApCo really wanted to know what the community thought about it, it should have been having open houses and listening to the community back in 2018.  But it chose to roll the dice and keep with the tired old transmission protocol of springing this on the community at the last minute.

It remains to be seen how much noise this community can make.  When it happens, it can be magic.
0 Comments

The REAL End For The PATH Project Finally Arrives

1/17/2020

1 Comment

 
I first heard about the PATH Transmission project in the summer of 2008.  It was a horrible, unneeded idea that eventually met its fate, shelved in 2011 and cancelled for good in 2012.  Many considered that the end of the PATH project.

But it wasn't.  A formal complaint about PATH's rates had been filed at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in January, 2011.  I chose to stick with that complaint, even when PATH was no longer a threat.  It's been a lot of work over the past nine years, coming in fits and starts. 

We prevailed on our complaint, and PATH was ordered in 2017 to refund more than seven million dollars, plus interest and undue return it had collected for its extensive public relations campaign and lobbying carried out for the purpose of influencing the decisions of public officials considering the project's applications.  The correct precedent was set, and utilities under FERC's rate setting jurisdiction may no longer collect these kinds of costs from ratepayers.

Done!

But, not really.  Several more orders were issued since then, correcting PATH's refund filings.  Even though ratepayers officially paid off all the PATH debt in 2017, PATH has still managed to collect several million dollars a year from ratepayers while it bumbled its way through the FERC Orders and made required compliance filings.  I continued to keep an eye on what was transpiring.  Sometimes the kids get out of control if they don't have a babysitter.

The twice-yearly rate filing phone meetings and data requests continued.  And how much fun were those?  Not much fun at all.  I'm seriously over it.  Twelve years after PATH began collecting its costs through rate filings at FERC, it's time to put this thing to bed.  For good!  We've all got other things to do.

So, is it January again?  It seems like a lot of the PATH things happen at FERC in January.  New year, out with the old.  Yesterday, FERC issued its agenda for its January, 2020, public meeting.  PATH is on it.  All of the open PATH matters are on it.  They'll be settled one way or the other next Thursday.

Nobody knows what to expect until the order is issued.  But the fact that it ended up, once again, on a monthly meeting agenda indicates that the Commission sees some value in making this order more visible.  The Commission issues orders every day, but only a handful are significant enough to end up on the monthly agenda, delivered before an audience in Hearing Room 1.

I can't wait!  No matter what happens, I'm am truly thrilled to put PATH behind me, for good!

FERC gets a lot of rancor from the public and the industries it regulates.  But, in this instance, FERC has done an outstanding job sorting through everything and meting out justice.  The FERC employees I interacted with during this case have been fair, considerate, and dedicated.  I had a great experience at FERC.  I have faith that FERC works for for the citizens it serves.

Twelve years... the lingering life of a transmission proposal that was concocted in haste... and repented at leisure.  The ratepayer gravy train will now finally grind to a halt.
1 Comment

Transource Continues To Waste My Money As Hearings Continue

1/11/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
There.  I fixed the headline for this article published recently.

There's absolutely no good answer to why Transource feels the need to award a construction contract for a project that hasn't been approved in either state in which it is proposed to be constructed.  No good reason at all.

Maybe it's a PR stunt?  Perhaps Transource wants to tell the PA PUC in its upcoming status report that it has awarded the contract for the project to a "Pennsylvania company" and created jobs in the state?  Otherwise, it makes no sense at all, since Transource cannot put any shovels in the ground until it has its certificates.  But what may be happening is stockpiling of materials and final engineering work for a transmission project that will never be built.  Transource continues to spend buckets of ratepayer cash on their dead project.  Every dime Transource spends will have to be repaid by electric ratepayers assigned cost responsibility for the project by PJM, plus annual return more than 10% until the sunk costs are paid off.  We're talking tens of millions of dollars repaid over perhaps a 5-year period when the project is abandoned.  Actions like this are why everyone's electric bills are so expensive.  We've only recently finished paying off the quarter billion dollar sunk costs of the failed PATH transmission project that was never built.  Gotta keep those dollars coming in for abandoned projects!

So, who got awarded the contract for a project that will never be built?  Harlan Electric, which is supposed to be based in Harrisburg.  But it's also based in Massachusetts and Michigan, and builds projects all over the place.  If you think all the folks working on the project for the company are based in Harrisburg, you may not be correct.  How many workers would be imported to construct the project?  If all workers were local to Harrisburg, there would be no need for hotels with group rates, right?  The workers could simply go home every night.  Instead, Transource wants to hear from local hospitality folks who want to bid on supplying restaurants, catering, venue rental, and hotels with group rates.  Sure sounds like support for a traveling minstrel show of transmission workers.

But it seems there is one company local to Pennsylvania (although not in the project area) that has been awarded a subcontract, according to the Waynesboro Record Herald.

Harlan Electric representatives are securing subcontractors and will be working with local contractors such as Newville Construction of Newville.
So, Harlan is just a general contractor who will be subbing the actual work out to other contractors?  My, my, that sure sounds cost efficient!  Everybody gets a piece of the ratepayer cash pie!

And where have we heard the name Newville Construction before?

I think it first came up in this video, where a farmer appealed to other farmers in the project area, telling them that the transmission project won't be a burden and that the construction company would leave their property in better condition than they found it.  The farmer, Jim Shuster, didn't mention that he is also the President and Founder of Newville Construction.  Of course, that's not relevant, right?  It must have just been a happy accident that a company he owns, in addition to his farms, ended up with a construction contract, right?  Of course, Jim wasn't paid "a plugged nickel" for his work in the video.  That's what he said in this article.
"Jim spoke from his perspective as the owner of Eleven Oaks Farm on his experiences with utilities and agriculture. Transource has not yet made a selection of the construction companies that will build (the line), nor has it promised work to Newville Construction." 
Shuster said that is the case. He said he was approached by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers to appear in the video and testify about his experience with power lines and agriculture. He doesn't understand the opposition to the power line. "I wasn't paid a plugged nickel for that," he said. "I was not promised a dime's worth of work for doing it." 
The impact on the land is minimal, he said, and his company operates under the directive to leave the land in better condition than they found it, something that has earned the company awards and praise from conservation groups. 
Transmission and Agriculture video.mp4
"We're not some Ma and Pa operation with a backhoe," he said. "We're a $30 million-a-year business." 
He is angry with some of those who oppose the power line because, he said, they suggested that his farm is a hoax. About the opposition, he said, "It's one of the most hypocritical things I've ever seen." Unless those opposed to the transmission line have their own power plant, he said, the electricity they use flows through a power line on some other farmer's property. 

"I frankly don't understand what their problem is with it," he said. 

Well, serendipity!  What a fortuitous event!  What are the chances?  Wish I could take those chances to Vegas!  Jim wasn't promised a thing in exchange for making that video.  He only did it as a favor to the union.  And by a rare stroke of good luck, he ended up with a contract to work on the proposed transmission line! 

I wonder if Jimmy Hoffa knows anything about this?  Maybe I can contact him via seance?  The union is surely involved somehow.
“Anytime jobs are created, it’s a win,” said Bernie Kephart, business manager for IBEW Local 126. “Our workers earn family-sustaining wages building the infrastructure that supports our daily lives. We’re proud to build infrastructure that saves customers money and reinforces the grid against power outages in Maryland and Pennsylvania.”
“We support clean, safe and affordable power,” said William C. Tipton Jr., business manager/financial secretary for Maryland IBEW Local 70. “Any conversation around energy comes to a quick halt if we do not have the transmission infrastructure to transfer that power to all who need it.”
Wait a tick... it has not been determined that the IEC will save customers money or reinforce the grid against power outages in Maryland and Pennsylvania.  It also has not been determined that the IEC would provide clean, safe and affordable power.  The only ones who can make this determination are the Pennsylvania PUC and the Maryland PSC.  Neither one of these agencies have made their determination yet.  There's still a long slog ahead, and there's still opposition from state agencies who protect customers, as well as opposition from landowners in the project area.  The jury is still out.

Jobs aren't everything.  Creating jobs just for the sake of having jobs is a waste of money.  My money, your money, electric customer money.
Local companies contracted by Transource also completed much of IEC’s geotechnical survey work, which concluded last year.
Right... and much of that money was wasted when the original eastern route was completely scrapped in favor of building the connection on existing right-of-way.  It's not like using existing infrastructure was an idea that came out of the blue after the work was completed.  Opponents had identified existing resources and asked to use them from the very beginning, before one penny was wasted on geotechnical work.

Waste, waste, waste.

But, hey, now that Transource has awarded all its construction contracts, perhaps we can get a better feel for how much this project is actually going to cost?  With all these contractors, subcontractors, and hotel venues, maybe it would cost more than has been estimated?  There's no cost cap on this project.  The more AEP (Transource) spends, the more it makes!  Perhaps that's why they're still moving full-speed ahead on a project that has stalled in the regulatory process?  Maybe they just want to pad their investment so they can recover it from us with interest?

Stop wasting my money, Transource!
0 Comments

"Wolf!", Cried Sierra Club

1/2/2020

1 Comment

 
Ya know how I suspect you don't have a cogent argument?  You make crap up to try to scare people to support your position.  And that seems to be what happened when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered a re-vamp of PJM Interconnection's capacity auction.

PJM's markets are a confusing mess that not a lot of folks understand.  Regular people understand pretty much nothing about PJM's electricity markets that supposedly serve their electric needs and provide power at prices that save consumers money.  That's what PJM says anyhow, and since most consumers don't even know that PJM exists in the first place, it's pretty much an "I don't care" situation.  But, in the energy world, PJM's markets are a big deal, a real big deal.  PJM's markets have been gamed and influenced to provide the most profits to energy suppliers forever.  That's why PJM has a Market Monitor to keep an eye on things to try to outsmart the gamers.

Over the last decade, states who have authority over their own electric generation mix, have attempted to encourage the generation source of their choice by providing subsidies.  But when those subsidies interfere with PJM's regional electric market, it becomes non-competitive.  One time, a state wanted to provide subsidies to a new generator that made up the difference between the generator's revenue and the PJM market so that it could offer and be accepted into PJM's capacity market.  The courts said that was not permissible.  State subsidies cannot be tied to PJM's market.  Since then, numerous states have found ways to subsidize their generation of choice without overtly tying it to PJM's market.  But the subsidies DO affect PJM's market, making that generation source "cheaper" so that it can offer a lower bid into the capacity market because the state is covering some of the generator's costs.

You only need a rudimentary knowledge of how PJM's capacity market works to understand this.  Capacity isn't electricity.  Capacity is the ability to produce electricity when called upon to do so.  Generators are paid for their capacity separately from the actual power they provide.  Because PJM has a need for a certain amount of electricity to keep the power on, it has to know that it will be available.  PJM sets its resource number for each year three years in advance, then holds an auction of sorts.  Generators with available capacity submit sealed bids.  PJM stacks the bids by price.  It then accepts bids, starting with the lowest, until it get up the stack to the amount of generation that meets its resource requirement.  All generators accepted in this process are paid the top clearing price.  Say the generator supplying the last bit of capacity bid $50, that means that every generator accepted gets paid $50, even though they may have bid in at a lower amount.  It pays to be a lower bid in the capacity market.  A generator can provide a lower bid because it receives subsidies.  Without subsidies, it would have to bid in at a higher cost, and that could mean that it doesn't clear the auction.  It would also mean that the ultimate price for all the capacity would rise if all generators had to bid in at their unsubsidized cost.  This subsidy gaming of PJM's market has been going on forever, but in such small amounts that it didn't really affect the market.

But in recent years, states have gone wild with the subsidies for renewables and other favored generation, such as nuclear.  With all these new subsidies, the market price tanked and the unsubsidized resources were forced out of the market.  Many have closed.  A market made up of subsidized resources is artificially priced and not really a competitive market at all.

So, FERC has been trying to fix this.  One fix is to strip subsidies from offered resources to make them bid in at a realistic price.  That's what FERC did just before Christmas.  It ordered PJM to revise its MOPR (Minimum Offer Price Rule) to nullify the effect of state subsidies.

And then all hell broke loose.

The self-serving environmental groups and renewable and other generators benefiting from subsidies freaked out.  And this happened.
“Trump and FERC are selling us out to the fossil fuel industry. They are adding billions of dollars in subsidies for coal, oil, and natural gas at the expense of green jobs and our health. They will now be getting over $6 billion a year just from our PJM grid alone, in addition to $15 billion a year in direct federal subsidies and all types of indirect subsidies. These dirty industries cannot compete with cheaper and cleaner renewable energy, so they are looking for a massive subsidy at our expense. This will hurt green jobs and public health,” said Jeff Tittel, Director of the New Jersey Sierra Club.
Honestly, what rubbish!!!  He says that FERC added billions of dollars of subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas.  They did no such thing.  That's an outright lie.  FERC did not give new subsidies to any generators, it simply mitigated the existing subsidies for renewables and nuclear.  If all generators exist on an even playing field, it is not instituting new subsidies.  And then he whines about "federal subsidies."  The FERC order didn't touch federal subsidies, like the production tax credit for new wind generators.  FERC felt it had no authority to nullify federal subsidies, just state subsidies.

The environmental groups have been whining about subsidies for a number of years.  As subsidies for renewable generators took off into a billion dollar industry, environmental groups chose to defend that by pointing to what it calls existing subsidies for fossil fuel generation.  Try to have a debate with any cleaniac about renewable energy subsidies, and they deflect by claiming other generators are getting just as much in other subsidies.  It's not true, but it serves to change the argument to one about dueling subsidies and away from public outrage at the juicy subsidies filling the pockets of renewable energy companies.  There are no overt subsidies of fossil fuel generation that come even close to those provided by the federal government for utility scale wind and solar.  Big Green insists renewable subsidies are no greater than those provided to fossil fuels.

But when FERC removed all state subsidies for all generators, Sierra Club whines that renewables are hurt by it.  If the subsidies are equal, then removing them all doesn't change anything.  Apparently there are more subsidies for renewables than there are for fossil fuels, or renewables wouldn't be hurt by their removal.  Big Green's favorite argument has flamed out.  It no longer has any relevance.

I'm going to guess that the Sierra Club guy crying about shameful giveaways didn't even bother to read the FERC Order before beginning to bellow.  That's pretty shameful in itself.  I actually did read the order, hard as it was to stomach, and I can't find any basis for the nonsense spewing from Sierra Club.  What I find interesting is the whole state v. federal thing.  If states are providing subsidies to certain generators, those subsidies are coming from state consumers and/or taxpayers.  The subsidies are affecting a regional market, not just one contained within the borders of the state.  So, if New Jersey subsidizes nuclear generators and that lowers the regional capacity market price, I would get a price benefit here in West Virginia.  Thanks, New Jersey!  And now, if New Jersey is still providing a subsidy to generators that does not lower prices in the regional market, and market prices go up, New Jersey citizens are sort of paying twice for the same subsidy.  Maybe they should rethink their subsidy, instead of trying to visit it upon everyone else?

Some claim FERC's Order will cause a great exodus from PJM and its regional market.  Buh-bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out.  If a state wants to subsidize certain kinds of generation that fits with its political goals, then it needs to keep that subsidy within its own borders.  Go ahead, subsidize what you want.  That's a state issue.  I could be selfish and parochial here, since New Jersey and other states are subsidizing the regional capacity prices I have to pay, and only worry about my own bottom line.  But the continued (and increased) state subsidies are causing existing generation to drop out of the market as uneconomic.  That's generation that we've all paid for over the years, replaced by new generation that we're all going to have to pay for over the next 50 years.  At some point, this kind of a market is going to explode.  Regional capacity prices will be pure fiction, totally influenced by individual state policies.

So, do we really need a regional capacity market?  Do we really need to know that sufficient generation will be available 3 years from now to keep the lights on, or should we depend on state generation policies to provide adequate generation for their own state?  Or, maybe we should just cross our fingers and hope the lights come on three years from now, when existing baseload generators are all gone and we're depending on a new crop of intermittent generators whose capacity factors are quite small?  Remember, capacity is a generator's ability to generate power when called.  Those coal and gas generators have high capacity factors because they can generate any time from stockpiled fuel.  Wind and solar, however, have very small capacity factors because they rely on the vagaries of weather and sunlight to supply their fuel in real time.  If we add huge battery capacity to create a stockpile, that has a huge additional cost.  Because the capacity factors of renewable generators are so small, we need to hugely overbuild them to guarantee any amount of capacity.  How would this end up being "cheaper"?  State generation subsidies are merely skewing the market for now, with big problems down the road.

Let's see what FERC's Order does to PJM's capacity market, and if we're actually getting some surety from the "increased" costs it imposes.  Today's prices aren't really lower, they're subsidized and being paid outside PJM's market through state subsidies.  What if you added up the current capacity market costs and all existing state subsidies that will now be nullified?  That's the actual true cost of capacity.  This order won't so much increase prices as it will re-allocate who pays the cost of capacity.

The sky isn't falling.  There's no slobbering wolf wandering through town.  It's just Sierra Chicken Little and all his chickie friends telling us once again that the world is ending because they didn't get their way.  Thank goodness there are energy professionals that actually understand these markets and don't base their decisions on a bunch of propaganda and whining.
1 Comment

Maryland Office of People's Counsel Digs Into PJM's Magic Math

12/19/2019

0 Comments

 
Earlier this week, a whole pile of testimony was filed at the Maryland PSC regarding the partial settlement that Transource engineered in the case of its proposed Independence Energy Connection.

We all know that PJM has been using magic math to alter the project's benefit/cost ratio in order to make it appear economic.  But, what exactly has PJM done?  The OPC's witness gets right to the point.  In its latest iteration, PJM's B/C left something important out of its "base case" that calculated benefit.  PJM has been inconsistent in evaluating the three separate projects it recently bundled into one aggregate project with a B/C of 2.25:1.  When project 5E (the Graceton-Bagley rebuild) tanked below 1.25, PJM added the H-L project (Hunterstown-Lincoln) to its base case in order to raise that number to 1.8.  PJM added H-L because it increased the B/C ratio for 5E. 

However, when it came time to re-evaluate the Transource project, PJM took H-L OUT of the base case because that increased the B/C ratio for the Transource project.  OPC's witness believes that the "benefits" of the Transource project will fall if H-L is included in the base case.
I believe that PJM should have conducted an evaluation to calculate the B/C ratio of the Reconfigured Project 9A with the H-L Project in the base case, consistent with its approach to evaluating Project 5E. Project 5E failed the B/C threshold in the latest reevaluation, but PJM repeated the analysis including the H-L Project in the base case because of its impending recommendation that the PJM Board approve the H-L Project. My understanding of the rationale for including the H-L Project in the base case is that with such a high benefit-cost ratio and a low total cost it is highly likely the H-L Project will be approved, and that project will impact the flows to Project 5E, making it more reasonable to review Project 5E with the H-L Project in the Base Case.
The Reconfigured Project 9A has a similar fact pattern, although the results are opposite directionally. The latest reevaluation of Project 9A passed the B/C threshold without the H-L Project, but it is reasonable to expect that, due to the proximity of the two projects, the addition of the H-L Project will alter the flows of power that produced the 9A benefits.
While we do not currently have all of the data needed to estimate the results of that case, it is possible that including the H-L Project in the Base Case will reduce the calculated benefits of the Reconfigured Project 9A.
You should carefully read this testimony.

Bravo, OPC!
0 Comments
<<Previous
Forward>>

    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


    Need help opposing unneeded transmission?
    Email me


    Search This Site

    Got something to say?  Submit your own opinion for publication.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010

    Categories

    All
    $$$$$$
    2023 PJM Transmission
    Aep Vs Firstenergy
    Arkansas
    Best Practices
    Best Practices
    Big Winds Big Lie
    Can Of Worms
    Carolinas
    Citizen Action
    Colorado
    Corporate Propaganda
    Data Centers
    Democracy Failures
    DOE Failure
    Emf
    Eminent Domain
    Events
    Ferc Action
    FERC Incentives Part Deux
    Ferc Transmission Noi
    Firstenergy Failure
    Good Ideas
    Illinois
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Land Agents
    Legislative Action
    Marketing To Mayberry
    MARL
    Missouri
    Mtstorm Doubs Rebuild
    Mtstormdoubs Rebuild
    New Jersey
    New Mexico
    Newslinks
    NIETC
    Opinion
    Path Alternatives
    Path Failures
    Path Intimidation Attempts
    Pay To Play
    Potomac Edison Investigation
    Power Company Propaganda
    Psc Failure
    Rates
    Regulatory Capture
    Skelly Fail
    The Pjm Cartel
    Top Ten Clean Line Mistakes
    Transource
    Washington
    West Virginia
    Wind Catcher
    Wisconsin

Copyright 2010 StopPATH WV, Inc.